8:00PM ET NL (+100) vs AL (-120)
Got so close yesterday with Witt Jr, but he fell short. We did cash a couple of plays but overall dropped about a unit. Tonight we turn to a tried and true betting trend for the All-Star Game. Let's see if it holds.
Where Have the Runs Gone?
Scoring in Major League Baseball has been on a downward trend over the past few years. This season, teams are averaging just 6.81 runs per game, the lowest mark over the last 5 years:
2024: 6.81
2023: 7.19
2022: 7.62
2021: 8.06
2020: 6.95
2019: 8.61
The drop in scoring this year further supports the case for a low-scoring All-Star Game, as this game already has a tendency to go under, even in years where scoring is up.
Venue Impact
The game will be played at Globe Life Field, an indoor park that has not been friendly to offenses this season. The park ranks 25th in run value, middle of the road for home runs at 13th, and 27th for extra-base hits. While this hasn't been the case every year for this stadium, these metrics indicate that Globe Life Field is one of the more challenging environments for hitters to produce runs. We got a taste of this last night in the derby, where the # of homers was low. Part of that was due to the format, but we saw plenty of balls die in the outfield.
Its All About the Arms
The format of the All-Star Game itself naturally favors pitching. Both managers aim to showcase as many players as possible, leading to a constant rotation of pitchers. This makes it difficult for hitters to develop any kind of familiarity with the pitchers they face, and the staffs are so good that it's unlikely for hitters to have success their first time seeing them.
Furthermore, the evolution of pitching in MLB has reached new heights. This year's All-Star Game will feature pitchers like Pirates rookie sensation Paul Skenes, who will start for the National League. Skenes, a hard-throwing right-hander, averages 99.1 mph on his four-seam fastball. He exemplifies the current era of specialized, high-velocity pitchers who dominate hitters.
Best Bet
Let's wrap it up with a trend. All-Star game unders are on a 14-1-2 run. The MLB All-Star Game has evolved into a showcase of pitching prowess and defensive skill, with both managers rotating players to give as many as possible a chance to participate. This format, combined with the current trend of low-scoring games and the challenging hitting conditions at Globe Life Field, makes the under 7.5 runs a strong bet.
PICK: UNDER 7.5 (-120)