The highly anticipated main event of UFC 305 pits former two-time middleweight champion Israel Adesanya against the reigning champion, Dricus Du Plessis. With the betting line set as a pick'em, there’s plenty of debate on who will emerge victorious. To find value in this fight we need to search beyond the media narratives and hype, and dive into the details.
Analyzing the Matchup
There’s been much discussion about Adesanya’s emotional reaction at the pre-fight press conference. However, it's important to separate these moments from what truly matters when betting on a fight: line value, skill, strategy, and matchup dynamics. Emotional reactions aside, Adesanya remains one of the most technically proficient strikers in the UFC.
The key to understanding this fight lies in Adesanya’s three losses in the UFC, which came against Jan Blachowicz, Sean Strickland, and Alex Pereira. These fighters share a few things in common—they are all proficient strikers who work mainly by the book. Technique above all and timely strikes and counters. They also could check Adesanya’s leg kicks, one of his best tools to throw fighters off balance. Du Plessis, while powerful and relentless, does not possess the same technical striking skills. His approach is much more sloppy and unpredictable. This has worked to his advantage very often as he can overwhelm opponents and use his great power to land hits, but against a fighter like Adesanya it can prove to be his downfall as well.
At the same time, that approach is likely his best chance to win this fight. If this turns into a methodical striking match, Adesanya should shine and thrive. Du Plessis must overwhelm Adesanya with aggressive blitzes and try to incorporate using his strength to secure takedowns, similar to his approach against Robert Whittaker. The funny thing is, while that approach got Dricus the win against Whittaker, we saw Whittaker himself do something similar against Izzy and get KO'd... just an interesting tidbit.
Adesanya does hold several key advantages in this fight though; he’s taller, longer, and more technical than Du Plessis, which will allow him to control the range and dictate the pace of the fight. His ability to work from the outside, pick his shots, and avoid unnecessary risks will be crucial against an opponent like Du Plessis, who thrives in chaotic exchanges.
Du Plessis is a dynamic fighter with a lot of power and offensive grappling upside. He averages 2.5 takedown attempts per round with a 52% success rate, making him a formidable grappler. However, the question remains whether he can consistently take Adesanya down and keep him there long enough to do significant damage. While Du Plessis has shown the ability to overpower opponents like Whittaker and Strickland, Adesanya’s experience and striking acumen may prove too much to handle, especially if the fight remains on the feet.
Line Movement
The line for this fight has moved toward a pick'em, offering bettors a rare opportunity to back Adesanya at a discount. Typically, Adesanya enters his fights as a significant favorite, but his recent loss to Strickland has created a perception that he’s more vulnerable than he actually is. This shift in odds provides value for those willing to bet on the former champion, as this fight opened with Adesanya around -185 and Du Plessis around +150.
Best Bet
Dricus Du plessis is not someone I'm excited to fade. The current champion is an exceptional fighter with a bright future, but this matchup simply favors Adesanya. He is still in his prime and remains one of the most skilled strikers in the sport. The three-inch height and four-inch reach advantage, combined with his superior technical striking, give Adesanya the tools to control the fight and outpoint Du Plessis over five rounds.
While Du Plessis may have success early, especially if he can secure a takedown or two, Adesanya’s ability to adapt and counter will be the key to his victory. The former champion’s experience in title fights and against high-level competition will likely tip the scales in his favor. Once you add the fact that oddsmakers had Adesanya as a big favorite and the line has moved all the way down to a pick - the value side becomes pretty clear.
PICK: ISRAEL ADESANYA ML (-110)
